The Iranian Navy has begunreturning to the port of Bandar Abbas six weeks after an emergency evacuation

during the 12-Day War. This marks one of the first signs of the countryrestoring its military and logistical infrastructure. Key Southern Fleet

vessels, including frigates, landing ships, reconnaissance vessels, and part ofthe supply fleet, are back in port. However, some critical assets—like the

submarine IRINS Tarek and the flagship IRINS Makran—have yet to return. Over recentweeks, ships have been entering port individually to refuel and resupply before

relocating to coastal anchorages, avoiding congestion. This strategy hasmaintained minimal logistical operations amid a tense internal situation. The

Navy’s return is a significant signal: Iran is seeking to reassert control overstrategic maritime points, including transport infrastructure and defense

logistics. Despite ongoing political tensions, the revival of naval activitymay help stabilize supply chains, trade flows, and transport corridors in the

Persian Gulf region.

The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) has reported that 10 large containerships, including 6 from CMA CGM and 4 from MSC, have transited the canal since the launch of a 15% discount program in mid-May 2025. This initiative aims to bring back traffic amid Red Sea tensions.

The CMA CGM Zephyr, carrying 11,800 TEU, was one of the largest vessels to pass through recently. The SCA is also promoting its services to vehicle carriers — BYD Xi’an and BYD Hefei both made transits carrying thousands of cars. A 20% increase in vehicle carrier tonnage is expected in H2 2025.

Despite security concerns due to Houthi attacks, CMA CGM vessels are returning, supported by EUNAVFOR Aspides naval escorts in the region.

Despite major investments by the US and its allies in military infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific, deterrence strategy remains vulnerable without guaranteed access through Indonesia. Passage through key maritime and air corridors of the archipelago is critical for force mobility in any conflict scenario. However, Jakarta’s political neutrality, focus on strategic autonomy, and the lack of clear transit agreements make such access uncertain. Without strong diplomatic engagement and trust-building, even the most advanced bases in Guam and Darwin cannot ensure the real effectiveness of allied strategy.

Iran launched a rare daytime missile attack on Haifa and other parts of Israel just hours after Maersk announced it would suspend vessel calls and cargo acceptance at the Port of Haifa due to rising security risks. Around 23 ballistic missiles targeted Haifa, injuring at least 17 people. The attack seemingly avoided the port, but Haifa remains crucial to Israel's trade, handling over one-third of container imports. Maersk redirected its vessels to Ashdod, while other carriers like CMA CGM and MSC have not made major changes yet. The situation highlights potential strain on regional logistics infrastructure if more operators suspend operations.

The costs of chartering tankers to move oil from the Middle East to Asia have climbed and ship bookings have slowed as the Israel-Iran conflict fuels worries of potential disruptions, industry sources told Reuters on Monday.

The global benchmark rate for a very large crude carrier (VLCC) moving oil from the Middle East Gulf (MEG) to Japan, known as TD3, rose over 20% on Friday after the tensions broke out, according to LSEG data.

On Monday, the MEG-Japan rate for crude held steady at about W55 on the Worldscale industry measure, according to a shipbroker.

However, further gains in freight rates were limited as traders, shipbrokers and charterers take a wait-and-watch stance even as market participants said they did not expect the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping passage, to be shut.

"Fixing on Friday from the region all but came to a standstill. Physical marks may therefore not be indicative. Ships inside the gulf are still looking for outbound charters," said Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage.

"But the situation remains dynamic, and we expect to hear more on market open today," said Singh.

"We have noted a minor increase in freight rates so far, but expect them to rise further as the week progresses," according to Sentosa Shipbrokers.

Emril Jamil, senior analyst for crude and fuel oil at LSEG Oil Research, said freight rates will depend on any continued escalation and potential action by Iran on the Strait of Hormuz. About 18 million to 19 million barrels per day of oil and oil products flow through the waterway, which connects the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.

"The war risk premium is expected to remain high in the near-term given the continued exchange of tensions between the two countries. This will exponentially rise if other Middle East oil and gas infrastructure are attacked," said Jamil.

He added that cargo insurance premiums could range from an additional $3 to $8 a barrel if there are further attacks.

For clean products, freight rates to ship around 90,000 tons of either gasoline, diesel or jet fuel from the Middle East to markets west of the Suez Canal were at $3.3 million to $3.5 million late last week, before the conflict, according to estimates from three shipping sources, but new offer levels have yet to emerge.

Some brokers are already giving market indications at $4.5 million levels, according to one Singapore-based trade source.

Several shipowners are holding back offering vessels for routes in the Gulf until the situation becomes more clear, which may increase opportunities for voyages from the Far East to the west of Suez and from northwest India, Sentosa shipbrokers said in a note to clients.