The closure of the Suez route has changed the fundamental outlook for container shipping in 2024, with a potential capacity crunch in Asia looming in the short term, according to the January report of the Baltic Exchange.

In the report, Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen wrote that up until mid-December 2023, the baseline outlook for 2024 was for a continued cyclical downturn likely with freight rates bottoming out in late 1Q or early 2Q 2024.

Jensen wrote, “After this, it was anticipated that carriers would begin to idle more capacity to stabilise and strengthen rates from what had already become loss-making levels. The de-facto closure of the Suez routing has changed this baseline outlook fundamentally.”

Threats of attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, the entry to the Suez, has made many operators detour vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.

Operating the Asia-Europe and part of the Asia-US East Coast network will absorb 5 to 6% of global capacity. This should be manageable given the amount of overcapacity that had accumulated in the market.